Weak production operations or rising rates of bankruptcy are visible damages to the United States because of the trade war.

US President Donald Trump is expected to sign a "first phase" trade agreement with China on January 15. But the deal, which took two years to form, did not remove some of the tariff barriers he imposed on Chinese goods.

The deal will eliminate tariffs on about US $ 370 billion of goods, nearly two-thirds of US imports from China. Tariffs have raised prices for many items, from baseball caps, suitcases, bicycles, TVs, sports shoes to a range of materials used by American manufacturers.

Trump uses tariffs as a negotiating tool to hurt the economy and pressure China to agree to a new deal that requires Beijing to eliminate unfair trade practices such as theft. intellectual property or technology transfer. Business leaders across the United States, as well as parliamentarians from both parties, agree with the goal.

But the tax blow has also affected Americans. Profits of businesses decline, forcing employers to make decisions to cut jobs or increase prices with consumers.

On the other hand, not knowing how long the tariff war will last and whether Trump wants to increase the pressure on China no longer makes business people hesitant in long-term investment decisions, negatively impacting on growth.

A Moody's Analytics report said the trade war with China, which began in early 2018, cost the U.S. 300,000 jobs, as of September 2019.

However, the US job growth rate is still relatively strong. The economy added 2.1 million new jobs in 2019, though lower than in 2018 with 2.7 million additional jobs.

It is difficult to determine how much trade tensions contribute to job losses, but Moody's report is not the only source that shows tariffs affecting US workers.

According to a survey by human resources firm Gray & Christmas, trade difficulties were cited as the reason that 10,000 jobs were cut, in August alone. An analysis from the Tax Foundation also assesses that the trade war will lead to job losses over the long term.

Trump was wrong to declare China a tax payer. Actual tax costs are charged directly to the bank accounts of US importers from the time the goods arrive at the port.

US companies have to pay $ 46 billion more in taxes than before Trump's tariff barriers, according to a government data analysis conducted by the free trade alliance Tariffs Hurt the Heartland.

Many US importers accept the cost of taxes, but others choose to pass some or all of these costs to consumers.

It is possible that Chinese manufacturers have lowered their product prices to maintain a competitive advantage in the US market, but at least two reports published last year indicated that US companies and consumers. incurring tax costs.

Some studies show that the tariff barrier ultimately hurts American families. JPMorgan Chase said the Trump tax rates imposed in 2018 caused the average cost of American households to increase by $ 600 per year.

Another report from researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Princeton University and Columbia University, estimates that the tariff barrier even increases the cost of US households to $ 831 a year. . The study also took into account the cost of moving the supply chain from China to avoid taxes.

But the above calculations do not include tax measures imposed from September 2019 targeting consumer goods such as toys, clothes and TVs. The previous tax rounds were mainly on industrial goods and were less likely to directly increase shoppers' costs.

Even so, inflation has been around 2% since the trade war broke out.

Trump insisted his tax measures boosted manufacturing, but the industry was in recession. In December, production weakened to its lowest level in more than a decade. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that only 46,000 manufacturing jobs were created in 2019, an increase of less than 0.5%.

According to a recent study by economists at the US Federal Reserve, tariffs are undoubtedly the cause of the manufacturing industry's stagnation.

The fact that some businesses benefit by the Trump tax push makes foreign competitors' goods more expensive. But many American manufacturers need to import raw materials from China to produce and assemble domestic goods and tariff barriers on items like steel, engines or bicycle parts.

Any gains made possible by tax breaks are pulled back by rising raw material prices and losses from Chinese retaliatory tax measures targeting US goods. These factors led to declining employment in manufacturing, economists at the US Federal Reserve said.

China has chosen to target American farmers by imposing retaliatory duties on agricultural products such as soybeans, wheat or corn.

But even as US farmers lose their largest export markets, a recent survey showed that farmer sentiment is still positive and the US Department of Agriculture predicts a 10% increase in agricultural income in This year, to the highest level since 2014.

The above results were largely thanks to a bailout from the US President. The Trump administration has spent about $ 28 billion on farmers affected by tariffs imposed by China. The payments are not enough to offset the total losses farmers have suffered but more or less helped close the gap.

Without government bailout, agricultural income would be significantly narrowed. However, Trump's money cannot save every farmer. The rate of bankruptcy farmers has increased by 25% compared to 2018.

China's economic growth has slowed down and hit its lowest level in nearly three decades last year, partly due to a trade war. Many US importers have shifted their supply chains, buying goods from manufacturers in other Asian countries to avoid taxes.

Although the US job market remains resilient and the economy continues to grow, for the whole of 2019, it has actually leveled off.

The impact of the US-China trade war is difficult to calculate, but Trump's tax threat continues to make the business environment uncertain. Apart from China, he also imposes taxes on foreign steel and European wine and cheese.

The Trump administration is also considering raising the tariffs and imposing new taxes on a range of French products, a move that angers wine importers and restaurants.