Moscow and Ankara are likely to refrain to avoid a military conflict, helping to maintain calculations in Idlib, experts say.

Turkey on March 1 announced the launch of the Spring Shield military campaign against Syrian government troops in Idlib, in response to a Syrian air strike that killed 34 soldiers on February 28. . The Turkish drone (UAV) then attacked Syrian positions in Idlib province, killing 19 soldiers.

This is the latest in the context of tensions between Ankara and Damascus due to the Syrian military campaign in Idlib to regain the province from Turkish-backed rebel groups.

Turkey's military operation is like a declaration of war against Syria, a country supported by Russia in the fight to retake Idlib, the last territory controlled by pro-Turkish rebel groups.

However, Turkey's escalating military action appears to have angered Russia, as Russian military forces in Syria warned that they would not guarantee the safety of Turkish fighters operating in Idlib. This statement means that Russia will not intervene if the Syrian air defense launches a missile at Turkey in the northwestern airspace of the country.

"This is not a fight against Turkey, but Russia's action to set limits and emphasize the red line that some people are trying to challenge," retired colonel Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief. Russian magazine "Homeland Arsenal", stated.

According to Global Research commentator Tony Cartalucci, the recent victories of the Syrian army are gradually narrowing Ankara's influence in the country and risk eliminating the armed forces that Turkey has put a lot of effort into. support at Idlib.

The use of proxy forces to control Idlib is no longer feasible under the attack of the Syrian army and Russian air strikes. That prompted Turkey to send regular troops into Syria, clash directly with its troops and increase the risk of a military conflict with Russia.

Mikhail Khodarenok, retired Russian colonel and an analyst at RT television, said that if the Turkish army attacked on a large scale in Syria, everything could be out of control. "The risk of a regional conflict is very high," he said.

He believed that the Turkish army was fully armed and crushed by the Syrian army in just a few days of fighting. "So the situation is entirely dependent on the actions of great powers like Russia, the United States and NATO," Khodarenok said.

"If you decide to turn a blind eye, Russia will lose its military and political interests in Syria. The geopolitical role of Russia in the Middle East will dissipate, more than 5 years of fighting in Syria will collapse. It will be the price that Russia will have to pay if it does not intervene in Idlib, "the colonel emphasized.

Murakhovsky, however, argued that Russia's intervention was not a deployment of troops confronting Turkey, but rather an attempt by various channels to prevent direct confrontation between the two sides, ensuring the free operation of the two sides. Russian air force is aimed at fighting terrorist groups in Idlib, establishing a no-fly zone with Turkish air force over Syria.

Moscow will also try to let Ankara understand the price it will pay for military adventure in Syria. "If Turkey bets on force, it will be a very bad idea, because it will be very difficult to win," said Vladimir Dzhabarov, vice chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan phoned to find a way to ease the tension. Experts say that Moscow and Ankara are trying to avoid creating conflict beyond their control, leading to devastating attempts by both sides.

"The two leaders shared their views on Syria, expressing deep concern about the escalation of tensions in Idlib province. The two sides emphasized the need to apply normalization measures, as well as improve coordination channels. operated between the Russian Defense Ministry and Turkey. The fight against international terrorist groups is considered a top priority, "the Kremlin issued a statement.

"Russia also wants to step up coordination with Turkey in operations on Syrian territory, organize joint patrols on agreed routes and halt efforts to deliver shoulder-to-shoulder air defense missiles (MANPADs) to Russia." non-national armed groups, "added Murakhovsky.

Russian television earlier accused Turkish rebels and soldiers of repeatedly using MANPAD to try to shoot down Russian and Syrian aircraft. No aircraft from Moscow and Damascus have been shot down by MANPAD, but the weapon poses a serious threat to Russian and Syrian air operations in Idlib.

Syria's Idlib province location (yellow) Graphics: NPR.

Many experts believe that the risk of Russia and Turkey starting a direct military conflict is not high, because the two sides still need each other to ensure interests in the region.

"'By face without dissatisfaction' is the most accurate phrase to describe the current relationship between Russia and Turkey. They have different calculations, even opposites, but still have to keep peace in order to protect their interests and allies ", Murakhovsky said. "That includes trade deals, energy supplies, Akkuyu nuclear plant project and S-400 air defense missile sales to Turkey, along with a range of political and economic deals. different in the future ".