Information about thousands of vases of ashes in Wuhan raises questions about the Covid-19 data in China, when deaths in Spain, Italy, the United States and France all cross the country.

The United States, the world's largest epidemic region, recorded more than 245,000 infections and more than 6,000 deaths. The deaths in Italy, Spain and France were more than 13,900, 10,900, and 5,300, respectively, much larger than the figure in China of more than 3,300 in 81,600 infected people.

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Thousands of barrels of ashes were placed at a funeral home in Wuhan on March 26 Photo: Caixin

Doubt about Chinese data existed during the crisis, as officials initially tried to cover up the epidemic and discipline early warning people. Pictures of thousands of jars of ashes and long lines waiting at a funeral home in Wuhan last week sparked controversy.

According to official data, Covid-19 caused more than 2,500 deaths in Wuhan city of 11 million people, accounting for three-quarters of the victims nationwide. The health system in this city was overloaded during an epidemic. Patients have to go home despite symptoms because the hospital has no beds to receive and there are not enough test kits.

People who die at home or die before the test are not included in the official statistics, but it is unclear what this number is. An unnamed doctor told Caixin magazine that in about 20 days, the number of suspected deaths in his hospital was on par with the number of confirmed nCoV deaths.

Caixin reports that the cremation of the Hankou funeral home in Wuhan operates 19 hours a day. In just two days, the funeral home received 5,000 jars of ashes. 13,856 bodies were cremated in Wuhan in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the city civilian agency.

According to the Washington Post, based on images posted online, many social media users estimate that Wuhan funeral homes have been paying 3,500 jars of ashes every day since March 23. That means the death toll in Wuhan is about 42,000, 16 times the official figure. Another widely shared calculation says that with 84 cremators operating non-stop and each cremation taking an hour, the number of deaths in Wuhan is 46,800.

Wuhan residents also expressed doubts about official statistics. "The data is probably not true because cremators have been operating around the clock, how can so few people die?", One man surnamed Zhang said.

Karine Lacombe, an infectious physician at Saint-Antoine Hospital in Paris, assessed "the scale of the disease has been reported to a minimum". "They may have concealed the actual death rate. When looking at what is happening in Itay and Spain, it is hard to believe that China only recorded more than 3,300 deaths."

"China's death rate has certainly been lowered," said Patrick Berche, a professor of microbiology and former director of the Pasteur Institute in Paris. "Although they have imposed measures to contain the epidemic, it is hard to believe that this country has such a low number of deaths."

As of 1/4, China does not count people who are positive for nCoV but has no symptoms in the number of confirmed cases, although WHO requires member states to report such cases. On April 1, China announced the number of cases in this category more than 1,300.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the number of people infected with nCoV but without symptoms can be as high as 25%. "If they are positive for nCoV, even if they have no symptoms, they still need to be counted," says virus expert Ian Mackay of the University of Queensland, Australia.

April 4 is Thanh Minh festival, when people go to the grave. While a limited number of people will be allowed to enter cemeteries in Beijing and Shanghai, there will be no such activity in Wuhan, where the city government bans the organization of funerals and graves until at least May

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Medical staff take care of patients in Wuhan on February 16 Photo: Reuters

Experts say that although this is a rule to ensure medical safety, the measure may also bring another motive. The Chinese government may want to avoid giving grieving families the opportunity to gather and complain about the government's anti-epidemic.

The US intelligence community last week submitted a report to the White House with the conclusion that the number of Chinese infections and deaths announced was much lower than it actually was. The CIA has been alerting the White House on this issue since at least early February and advising the United States not to rely on its data to build a model to predict the situation.

According to NYTimes, US intelligence has not been able to collect the exact numbers but they assess that the Chinese central government does not know the true size of Covid-19. They said local officials lied about infection rates, the number of people tested and the number of deaths, fearing that if they reported the numbers too high, they would be disciplined or lose their seats.

Deborah Birx, an immunologist who advises the White House on the reaction to Covid-19, said China's data affects how other countries view nCoV. "The medical community looks at Chinese data and says: This is a serious problem but not as serious as people think. So I think we may be missing a significant amount of data, look. into the situation in Italy or Spain, "Birx said.

China, meanwhile, stressed that drastic measures, including a crackdown on the 60 million people in Hubei, helped curb the epidemic. Beijing also reacted harshly to Washington's suspicions, saying that US officials were "shameless, unethical" and were seeking to blame the other party when it handled the epidemic itself.

Explaining the thousands of jars of ashes in Wuhan, the Chinese ambassador to Fei Sa said that people lined up to receive ashes because Wuhan had been frozen for more than two months. He said that in addition to more than 2,500 people died in this city because of Covid-19, about 10,000 people died from other causes. He added that an estimated 51,200 people died in Wuhan in 2019, an average of more than 4,000 each month.

According to the AP, it is true that before the outbreak, each month the city of 11 million people recorded thousands of deaths. In the first quarter of last year, 14,700 bodies were cremated in Wuhan. The fourth quarter of 2018 recorded 16,275 bodies.

Hsu Li Yang, head of the infectious disease program at the National University of Singapore, said that in any country, getting the complete picture is almost impossible.

"It is important to understand that the numbers from China, Italy, Singapore or the United States are not accurate, they are all to some extent below the actual number," Hsu said.

US-China tensions have increased after a series of battles over Covid-19. Chinese diplomats last month raised a conspiracy theory to send US troops to Wuhan. Trump then repeatedly called nCoV the "Chinese virus". However, after a phone conversation between Xi and Trump last week, the two sides dropped fierce statements.

Asked about the US intelligence report on April 2, Trump said that he discussed this with Xi, but he quickly ignored the issue and mentioned a trade deal with China. "Regarding whether their figures are accurate or not, I am not a Chinese accountant," he said.