The fact that Russia merged 4 Ukraine provinces made the war more unpredictable, when Kiev decided to regain his territory, and Moscow threatened to use nuclear weapons.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 30 signed the merger document of 4 provinces of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Lugansk of Ukraine into the territory.


Photo: AFP

Ukrainian officials said the Russian government founded in the four regions over the past week began to block men aged 18-35 from leaving the locality.

People vote for referendum to join Russia in Donetsk province, eastern Ukraine on September 24.

Experts rated this as a preparation for the encouragement, which could be deployed after the Russian National Assembly completed the legal process to merge 4 territories, expected in early October.

Dr. Volodymyr Artiukh, Central European University (CEU) at Austria, said that Russia's most difficult problem when merging more territory is also the fact that they do not control comprehensively any of the above 4 regions.

The separatist and Russian troops are controlling most of the Donetsk province, but have to withdraw in many localities in Lugansk province due to the Ukrainian army's counterattack.

In Kherson, southern Ukraine, the Russian force loses the majority of the Dnieper river left in the opponent's counterattack.

The Russian military regions are controlling in four provinces of referendum to merge into Russia.

Therefore, Dr. Artiukh said that mobilizing local forces in the merger areas will help the Russian army have the necessary resources to hold before the subsequent counterattacks of Ukraine, until 300,000 troops are moving.


Photo: Guardian.

Until the reserve army arrived, the Russian forces would have to struggle to support the counterattacks of Ukraine, and reassure the groups of residents to support Russia in the area, Artiukh said.

Ukraine's National Resistance Center said that the Russian military is in need of additional manpower after more than 7 months of war.

The fact that Russia must mobilize forces in the merger areas shows that the military is in need of emergency assistance to maintain the route during the time of waiting for the encouragement forces in the country, with an estimated time 3-

The Russian military scene on Kherson in the photo was published on May 29.

In the meantime, Russia needs a strong enough deterrent tool to prevent Ukraine from continuing to strongly counterattack, exceeding the tolerance of the routes that Russia has built in the merger areas.

Denis Pushilin, a Russian leader in the Donetsk, admitted that the city of Lyman, a strategic goal in the province, was surrounded by Ukrainian army and was at risk of falling.

Melinda Haring, Deputy Director of Asia -Europe Center of the Atlantic Council research organization, said that Russia was using nuclear threat as a deterrent tool to prevent Ukraine from counterattacking stronger on the battlefield.

According to haring, this is shown when President Putin threatens Russia to use all the necessary tools, including weapons of destruction at different levels, to protect territorial integrity.


Photo: AFP

Putin wants to expand the nuclear umbrella to 4 provinces of Ukraine.

Joseph Cirincione, expert in weapons control in the US, said the world should believe that Moscow is serious when warning about the ability to use nuclear weapons.

But Russia is different from the US at the point where they constantly practiced the use of nuclear weapons and integrated this type of combat in the exercises by conventional forces, Cirincione said, note the last time Russia performed the last time Russia performed.

However, the calculation of the Kremlin can become a double -edged sword.

Kiev repeatedly emphasized the determination to regain the territory, considering the action of Russia to merge the controlled areas as unilateral action from Moscow and unable to change Ukrainian sovereignty.

The challenge with Ukraine and its allies will choose how to react to Russia's nuclear weapons.

The first choice of President Zelensky is to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia and take advantage of the economic reconstruction.

This plan can also threaten the reputation of the Ukrainian leader, and make Kiev to lose the opportunity to liberate the territory if Moscow has enough time to consolidate forces, even facing the risk of Russian counterattack in the head.


Photo: Reuters

The second option, also the most evident plan through the messages from Kiev, is to bet on NATO's strategic deterrent to prevent Russia from using nuclear weapons, while speeding up the nose.

In this scenario, war can escalate unpredictable, when the four Ukrainian provinces are now considered by Russia as its territory.

Russian soldiers patrol outside the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on August 4.

Russia will find a way to escalate the war in October and November. Ukraine's ability to fight will then depend on the speed of supporting heavy weapons from the West, Artiukh forecast.

Recent statements from Kiev show that they do not believe that Moscow will use nuclear weapons, expected pressure from the West and neutral countries like India and China to prevent Russian leaders from performing threats.

The preparation steps for the next months of the war are still being implemented by Kiev and its allies.

Yuriy Kid, a former police officer in Nova Khakhova town in Kherson province, decided to run to the Ukrainian army controlled last week, when Russia and local authorities Moscow announced the organization of reference.

Kuish said he fled to avoid the separatist enlistment order, with the next destination was Odessa, one of the strongholds of Ukraine in the southern coastal region.

Despite the hope of negotiating between Russia and Ukraine became more fragile after 7 months of war, the analysts believed that this door was not completely closed.

Germany hesitated to aid tanks for Ukraine to raise bigger questions about Western endurance in the weapons pumping race.